Travel between Australia and China is set to surpass pre-pandemic capacity levels for the first time in five years, signalling a drop in international airfares.
Starting in January 2025, the route will reach 104 per cent of pre-pandemic seat availability, driven by new routes and increased competition.
Boost in capacity reshapes Australia-China travel
The return to full capacity marks a turning point for airfares, according to Flight Centre Corporate, which has reported rising bookings and falling ticket prices.
“The limited capacity between Australia and China has been one of the key reasons international airfares have remained high,” said Flight Centre Corporate Global COO Melissa Elf. “This influx of additional flights is the final frontier to lower airfares.”
By November 2024, capacity had reached 79 per cent of pre-pandemic levels. By January 2025, it will exceed pre-pandemic numbers, with Melbourne leading the charge at over 110 per cent capacity throughout 2025. Perth will see the greatest growth, jumping from 10 per cent in November to 90 per cent by February 2025.
Increased competition and new routes
Several significant developments are driving the surge in capacity:
- Direct flights between Perth and China: China Southern Airlines resumed these routes on 28 November 2024, adding 41,000 inbound seats annually.
- Beijing Daxing Airport connections: Australia will connect directly to this key hub for the first time on 13 December 2024, with flights from Sydney and Melbourne.
- New airline entry: Juneyao Airlines will launch non-stop flights from Sydney and Melbourne to Shanghai on 17 and 20 December 2024, respectively.
Economic benefits for business and tourism
China’s importance to Australia’s economy spans key sectors, including education, mining, retail, and manufacturing.
“The relationship between Australia and China has long been critical for trade and tourism,” Ms Elf said. “More capacity means better fares, and we’ve already seen prices soften.”
Economy fares between Australia and China are 14 per cent cheaper compared to the same period last year, with bookings up by more than 50 per cent year-to-date. Top destinations for corporate travellers include Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou, all of which will see significant capacity increases.
Perth’s vital connection to China
For Western Australia, the resumption of direct flights to China is particularly significant. China was WA’s largest market for visitor spending in 2019, with 73,000 Chinese visitors spending $367 million. It is also the state’s biggest trading partner, with exports totalling $147.7 billion in 2022–23.
Guangzhou, served by China Southern Airlines, acts as a critical transit hub with connections to 97 destinations within China and 53 internationally.
First flights to Beijing Daxing Airport
Starting next month, Australia will connect directly to Beijing Daxing Airport, one of China’s most prominent hubs. Opened in 2019, the airport supports 216 routes to 197 destinations and will offer direct flights from Sydney and Melbourne.
“Beijing Daxing Airport has quickly become a key hub for international travel,” Ms Elf said. “This is a major milestone, particularly for Sydney, which becomes its first direct link to Oceania.”
Key dates to watch
- 28 November 2024: Direct Perth-Guangzhou flights resume with China Southern Airlines.
- 13 December 2024: First direct flights to Beijing Daxing Airport from Sydney and Melbourne.
- 17 December 2024: Juneyao Airlines launches Sydney-Shanghai flights.
- 20 December 2024: Juneyao Airlines begins Melbourne-Shanghai flights.
