Flights between Sydney and Melbourne are running fuller than ever, with new data revealing that load factors on the popular route have hit record highs—even as overall passenger demand remains steady.
According to FCM Consulting’s latest Q4-2024 Quarterly Trends Report, aircraft are operating at significantly higher occupancy due to reduced seat availability, rather than a surge in new travellers. The Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE) reported a record load factor of 92.3 per cent in November 2024, up from the previous high of 85.8 per cent recorded in July when Regional Express entered voluntary administration.
Capacity down, demand steady
Despite a 3.4 per cent increase in passenger numbers between Sydney and Melbourne in December 2024 compared to the same month in 2023, the number of available seats on the route has remained flat. Seat capacity still lags seven per cent behind pre-pandemic levels in 2019, tightening availability and pushing more travellers onto fewer flights.
Renos Rologas, General Manager ANZ at FCM Travel, said that while passenger numbers are on the rise, the real story lies in shrinking availability.
“A high load factor indicates full aircraft and strong demand, but it also signals a squeeze on availability,” Rologas said. “When capacity doesn’t grow alongside demand, it places upward pressure on fares and limits choice for travellers.”
Fares hold steady—for now
Despite the squeeze, FCM Consulting’s analysis of fares purchased through to October 2024 shows that the average cost of an economy fare between Sydney and Melbourne has remained steady year-on-year.
“The economy cabin on this route is in constant demand,” said Rologas.
“Unless there’s a major shift in capacity or a new entrant increases competition, fare stability is likely to continue—but don’t expect prices to fall.”
